The Prime Minister’s statement at Portugal Markets Day 2025, organised by Euronext and AEM – “Portugal is worth believing in” – was the political conclusion of an economic reality already documented. The study Portugal as a Prime Investment Destination: Infrastructure & Innovation at the Core, presented at that same event by the Center for Applied Studies of CATÓLICA-LISBON, depicts not a mere cyclical recovery but a profound structural transformation. The data show that the country has repositioned itself as a top-tier investment destination, supported by tangible pillars that justify Luís Montenegro’s optimism.
Macroeconomic strength
Portugal’s economic “miracle” is quiet but robust. GDP growth, projected between 2% and 3% per year, is only the most visible face of a deeper shift. The foundation of this new reality lies in the correction of historical imbalances: public debt is falling steadily, supported by successive budget surpluses (a rarity in the European context). It is a clear indication that the economy has become globally competitive, able to finance itself and attract productive investment.
Contrary to what might be expected, this growth has not come at the expense of social cohesion. On the contrary, the share of the population at risk of poverty is now below the European average. Unemployment has reached a historic low (5.8%) and employment a historic high (5.3 million), demonstrating that an effective welfare state and a dynamic economy can reinforce each other.
Pillars of competitiveness
Macroeconomic strength is the foundation; competitive advantages are the engine. Portugal has developed two decisive assets: infrastructure and innovation.
The energy transition is no longer merely an environmental ambition but a leading economic advantage. With one of the highest shares of renewable energy in Europe (70% in electricity generation), the country offers clean, competitively priced energy for industry. In a world where electricity fuels the digital revolution and green reindustrialization, this is a critical factor for attracting data centers and large-scale industrial projects.
This energy revolution is complemented by a digital revolution. Near-universal fiber-optic and 5G coverage provides the nervous system of a modern economy. Even more strategic is Portugal’s role as the main landing point for submarine cables linking Europe, the Americas, and Africa. This position, which once could have been leveraged as a commercial geographical reference, is now the “digital gateway” of the Atlantic. It is an invaluable geostrategic asset, ensuring the latency and resilience that global companies demand.
In a world marked by geopolitical uncertainty, Portugal’s stability becomes a “safe harbor.” Its peripheral location in Europe and its historic ties with Latin America and Africa turn it into an attractive hub for talent and investment seeking refuge from more unstable regions. This resilience is reinforced by a solid, well-capitalized, and well-regulated banking system capable of financing a robust cycle of private investment.
However, Portugal’s most valuable asset is its human capital. The share of the working population with higher education has risen sharply, reversing the narrative of “brain drain.” This skilled workforce is strengthened by an immigration policy that attracts highly qualified talent with easy cultural integration (approximately 50% from Brazil and Portuguese-speaking African countries, and about 20% from the U.S. and Europe). Leading global expatriate rankings is no accident; it is the result of a unique combination of quality of life, safety, and openness that attracts entrepreneurs, investors, and scientists.
Innovation in Portugal is no longer a phenomenon concentrated in Lisbon. The CEA study identifies a multipolar ecosystem, with clusters of excellence emerging across the country. Health, biotechnology, and fintech – with global success stories such as GIMM, CEiiA, and Feedzai – demonstrate the ability to transform knowledge into economic value. The presence of multinational competence centers and cloud computing hubs confirms that the country is already a mature player in the knowledge economy.
An opportunity, not a gamble
“Portugal is worth believing in” is, therefore, much more than a slogan. It is the logical conclusion of a data-driven analysis. The country has built a solid macroeconomic foundation, unique competitive advantages in infrastructure, resilience in the face of global volatility, and a critical mass of talent and innovation.
Challenges remain, but the starting point has changed radically. Portugal is no longer the problematic case of Southern Europe. It is a success laboratory, an example of how a nation can reposition itself through sensible policies and a strategic commitment to the future. Believing in Portugal is no longer an act of faith; it is an informed decision supported by solid evidence. For investors and both international and Portuguese companies, the country now represents a clear and compelling opportunity. The future is no longer a hope; it is a responsibility that is being fulfilled.
Rute Xavier, Professor at CATÓLICA-LISBON