What we need now is courageous leadership, an example of which is being set by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who clearly understands the situation and is acting accordingly.
The global order collapsed in 2025, and Western liberal democracies are facing relentless harassment from the Trump administration. First came tariffs and extortion, then threats against Canada, and now a very clear desire to control Greenland through pressure, purchase, or force.
So far, European leaders have pursued a strategy of accommodation and appeasement, positioning themselves as the “adults in the room” and avoiding escalation with unpredictable consequences. The problem with this strategy is that we are not dealing with adults in the room, but with children in a school playground. And the biggest and strongest child has started bullying all the others. So how should Europeans respond?
The central issue when dealing with a bully is this: in each isolated interaction, the rational strategy is appeasement. Do not respond in kind, do not escalate. Admit weakness and concede something to avoid more severe consequences. This is what the European Union and most countries, with the exception of China, did in response to Trump’s tariff aggression. It is the correct strategy when facing a single episode of intimidation by a stronger actor.
The problem is that we are not facing a single interaction with the bully. The bully enjoys the feeling of power that comes from exploiting others’ weakness and continues to abuse repeatedly. At some point, we become accustomed to the abuse and say, “That’s just how he is… we have to live with it as best we can, there are only three more years left…” Then we appease again, accommodate once more, and give up a little more. After each interaction, the bully becomes more confident in his strength, and the other side becomes more accustomed to being dominated and abused. And the episodes of intimidation become more frequent, because they become addictive.
We can never trust a promise or agreement made by a bully, because he has neither integrity nor moral commitment. Tomorrow he will renounce the agreement he made today and demand even more concessions. As many victims of domestic violence unfortunately know, the final outcome is often severe beatings and death, precisely the result that appeasement was meant to avoid. Thus, the strategy that appears best in the short term when dealing with a bully, appeasement, is in the long run a defeat.
Europe’s situation is complicated for two reasons. First, Europe is not a single entity, but a collection of nations and peoples with a shared foundation but different short-term objectives. Germany, for example, sought to avoid damage to its weakened automotive industry and therefore favored a trade deal with the United States despite the intimidation. Each business sector and each leader, looking at their immediate interests, pressures European leaders to concede and avoid escalation. Only China, a larger state with centralized decision-making and a long-term strategic vision, has managed to stand up to Trump.
The second complication is that a child in the playground can decide to be brave and confront the bully, accepting the consequences of their actions. A political leader, however, who is responsible for the well-being of their population and economy must avoid reckless acts of personal courage whose negative consequences fall on their people. A strategy of responsible leadership would therefore seem to be appeasement. But, as we have seen, this strategy is a fallacy. What we need now is courageous leadership, an example of which is being set by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who clearly understands the situation and is acting accordingly.
This is where Europe stands today. So what should European leaders do? The only answer is to unite, speak with one voice, and be extremely firm with the Trump administration. Concede nothing that is not reasonable or fair. Concede nothing at all, zero. To any provocation, respond with calm, firm, and proportional action, without giving up anything.
Here lies an essential lesson about bullying. Bullies are not brave. They are cowards. Courage comes from values and principled action, from the moral strength to do what is right despite costs or consequences. The bully is incapable of courage. He is transactional, and when confronted with strength, firmness, and even a small risk of defeat, he will become frightened and retreat, usually finding a way to save face or protect his reputation. If bullying Europe becomes too costly, he will look for another target.
Here also lies an essential lesson about power. To a large extent, power is subjective. We grant power to others. Trump appears powerful because everyone is appeasing and accommodating him. In reality, the Trump administration is weaker than it appears, if we look closely. There are several sources of weakness and constraints on Trump’s power:
- The Supreme Court may begin to limit the administration’s abuses of power, in areas such as tariffs and military intervention.
- Congress may begin to intervene and oppose the President in key areas where his policies and actions are absurd, misguided, or destructive.
- The U.S. economy and financial system are excessively indebted, and the dollar will not withstand a global economic crisis triggered by Trump’s outbursts.
- The threat of widespread civil disobedience in response to the insanity of the Trump administration is beginning to emerge.
- The U.S. armed forces are among the most disciplined and intelligent in the world. They would likely refuse to obey clearly illegal orders that represent a dangerous abuse of presidential power, such as attacking a NATO ally without congressional authorization.
Trump will only win if we let him win. And it will not stop with Greenland. If he succeeds in extracting major concessions over Greenland and controlling the Arctic, pressure on Canada will be next. Then Panama. Then the Azores, to control the Atlantic and refuel aircraft without needing authorization. And more tariffs to extract further concessions.
It is time for unity and courageous leadership from Europe. The economy is our short-term weapon. Trump does not want economic damage before the November elections. We have large markets, significant financial resources that finance U.S. deficits, and the capacity to tax and regulate the digital sector more firmly. This gives Europe leverage. Trump will then escalate, as bullies do.
We must remain firm and united despite pressure and threats. He will eventually back down, or the system around him will force him to back down. My appeal to European leaders is therefore this: do not concede anything that is not reasonable or fair. Do not fear escalation. Respond with firmness and remain united.
Then the farce will collapse, and we will see Donald Trump for what he truly is: an insecure child, desperate for attention.
Filipe Santos, Dean of CATÓLICA-LISBON