Belém do Pará, Brazil. In the heart of the Amazon, home to internationally famous açaí, thousands of people are gathering for the UN Climate Summit — commonly known as the COP — taking place from November 10 to 21. The 30th edition of the Summit marks a decade since the creation of the Sustainable Development Goals, an important milestone that cannot go unnoticed, especially considering the current state of the Goals: still far from being achieved, with only about 17% of targets on track to be met by 2030.
COP30 has faced early criticism over infrastructure projects in elém and accommodation prices, which have risen sharply and indiscriminately. Concerns about the cost of participation have already been voiced by several countries, highlighting logistical and financial challenges even before the conference begins.
At a time when the world faces a series of pressing crises — from wars and political instability to economic slowdowns and the acceleration of extreme weather events — it is worth asking: what do we truly expect from this meeting? What positive outcomes can realistically emerge from Belém?
One of the main expectations is that countries submit new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that reflect emission reduction ambitions more compatible with the Paris Agreement goals.
Given the event’s location, the forest is also highlighted as an important point on the agenda, acquiring both symbolic and substantial weight. The main expectation is a collective commitment to a clear timeline for phasing out fossil fuels, new targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency, and a robust plan for forest conservation and restoration.
The debate on climate finance will also take center stage in Belém, not only to accelerate mitigation, but to ensure that the most vulnerable countries can adapt to the already unavoidable impacts of climate change. COP30 is expected to define a new post-2025 global climate finance goal, supported by clear mechanisms for transparency and funding for loss and damage. More than an economic question, this is an issue of climate justice: acknowledging the historical responsibility of developed countries and ensuring that affected communities have both voice and resources to adapt and resist.
The expectation is the announcement of new and mobilized financing commitments by donor countries, greater clarity on the new collectively quantified goal (NCQG) for the post-2025 period, and stronger structures for transparency and accountability.
Another point that is drawing attention to this year’s edition is the absence of several key world leaders from the COP30 negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump, who has a climate-skeptical agenda, chose not to attend the summit, raising concerns about the United States’ willingness to cooperate in global mitigation efforts. China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi are skipping the event, both delegating participation to their environment ministers. Even Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will not be present, leaving his delegation to lead discussions in his place. The collective absence of these leaders — representing four of the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitters — casts a shadow over the political weight of the conference and raises doubts about whether the decisions made in Belém will carry sufficient momentum to drive global change.
Amid the absence of some global powers, Brazil has sought to assert strong moral and political leadership at COP30. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has framed the summit as an opportunity to move “from negotiation to implementation,” emphasizing the need for concrete delivery on climate commitments rather than new promises. One of Lula’s flagship initiatives, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), was officially launched in Belém, backed by more than 50 countries and an initial pledge of over 5.5 billion USD. The Facility aims to make forest conservation more profitable than deforestation by creating a long-term financial mechanism that rewards countries for keeping tropical forests standing. The initiative reflects Lula’s broader vision for COP30: integrating climate, nature, and finance into a single global agenda, while promoting justice for developing nations and indigenous communities. Alongside the TFFF, Brazil’s presidency seeks to strengthen frameworks for transparency, accountability, and implementation, ensuring that COP30 leaves a legacy of tangible progress, not just political declarations. The so-called “Belém Package,” adopted under Brazil’s presidency, encapsulates this effort by integrating governance, accountability, and coherence across mitigation, adaptation, finance, and nature.
Despite high hopes, there is a realistic acknowledgment of the difficulties ahead: geopolitical conflicts, economic uncertainty, and the reluctance of major economies to continue to limit collective ambition. Nevertheless, the sense of urgency remains pressing, and COP30 is widely seen as a defining moment in what many call the “decisive decade” for climate action.
Ultimately, the success of the Belém summit will not be measured by the number of speeches delivered or documents signed, but by whether it generates credible mechanisms for implementation. Mechanisms capable of transforming promises into measurable progress, and progress into positive impact.
Have a Great and Impactful week!
Natália Cantarino, Researcher at the Center for Responsible Business & Leadership