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Economics

Quarterly Newsletter – 2018:Q2

In the second quarter of 2018, NECEP estimates that GDP increased 0.6% over the previous quarter (0.4% in the first quarter of 2017) and 2.4% year-on-year (2.1% in the previous quarter). This quarterly growth keeps the moderate recovery of the Portuguese economy since 2013, with occasional oscillations as in the first quarter.

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Quarterly Newsletter – 2018:Q1

In the first quarter of 2018, NECEP estimates that GDP increased 0.5% over the previous quarter (0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017) and 2.1% year-on-year (2.4% in the previous quarter). This growth reflects a maintenance of outlook observed since late 2017

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Quarterly Newsletter – 2017:Q4

In the fourth quarter of 2017, NECEP estimates that GDP increased 0.7% over the previous quarter (0.5% in the third quarter) and 2.4% year-on-year (2.5% in the previous quarter). Thus, annual growth in 2017 was 2.7%, the largest since 2000 when it reached 3.8%. The demand components that contributed most to this growth were investment and exports. The former contributed 1.5 percentage points (pp), especially through machinery and equipment. Exports contributed 3.2 pp from industrial supplies, vehicles and services, including tourism.

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Quarterly Newsletter – 2017:Q3

In the third quarter of 2017, NECEP estimates that GDP increased 0.8% over the previous quarter (0.3% in the second quarter) and 2.8% year-on-year (3.0% in the previous quarter). This quarterly GDP growth reflects an improvement in economic conditions across the board, including the recovery of investment. There is an unusually high uncertainty to this estimate due to a collection of specific effects.

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Quarterly Newsletter – 2017:Q2

Taking into account recent developments, in particular the good performance of the Portuguese economy in the first quarter, the NECEP projects GDP growth of 2.7% in 2017, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points (pp) from the April estimate. This forecast is involved in a considerable degree of uncertainty due to the combination of calendar effects, high deflators and significant changes in inventories that blur the first quarter data. Thus, it is difficult to extract unequivocal signals from it. The projection results from the cumulative effect of three favourable factors: the stronger growth in the euro zone, the lagged effects of last year's fiscal policy and the clear signs of cyclical recovery of the Portuguese economy. If NECEP estimate materializes, it will be the strongest GDP growth since the year 2000, surpassing the 2.5% observed in 2007.

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Quarterly Newsletter - 2017:Q1

In the first quarter of 2017, according to NECEP estimates, GDP increased 0.9% over the previous quarter (0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2016) and 2.7% year-on-year. This quarterly GDP growth reflects an apparent improvement in economic conditions, in particular the recovery of investment and disposable income, which grew by 2.8% last year in real terms. If this estimate materializes, it would be the largest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2007.

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